Edward Tufte at the Ballpark
Oh graphs and visual displays, how thou art
A wondrous tool for baseball fans like me,
Thou bringeth forth the game's rich inner part,
And let us see what's true and what might be.
Thou bringeth statistics to life before
Our eyes, and let us see the strategy
That wins or loses games; and even more,
Thou light the pitcher/batter artistry.
Thou maketh the beauty of the field more bright,
As we can see the movements we love,
And the grace of players turning in the night,
Or the mighty flick of a double play glove.
And sometimes with just a simple glance,
We grasp the play, the flow, the dance.
Hello
For about ten years, from 2005 to 2015, I wrote a lot of words about baseball. I was also managing the Hardball Times website and coordinating the publication of our baseball annuals. If you're interested in the state of baseball analysis and commentary at the time, you might find some of my old work interesting.
I created the following PDFs from the Hardball Times website which is now hosted by Fangraphs. Not all of the formatting from the old website made it to Fangraphs, so please forgive some of the odd displays, such as bold titles and tables. I think they're still readable. Enjoy.
Ten Things
I wrote a regular column at the Hardball Times called Ten Things I Didn't Know Last Week. Each week, I tried to find the right mix of storytelling and analysis. It was a good run for a few years. Here's a PDF of some of my favorite columns.
I also wrote a Ten Things article in each Hardball Times Annual as a way of summarizing the year just ended. These are my articles from 2006 through 2010.
Basics
These are a few basic columns that I wrote, covering subjects such as regression to the mean (which was used in at least one statistics class that I know of), APBA, and the mind of Brian Sabean. Most of these articles were pretty simple, but sometimes you have to make the point. Included in here is one of my personal favorites "Why wOBA Works". I think the baseball world could still get something from that one.
Batted Ball Articles
Back in the day, we didn't have all the crazy tracking technology that baseball utilizes today. We didn't know the speed of a batted ball, let alone the bat. We were just learning about pitch speeds and we were only categorizing batted balls in line drives, ground balls, and such. But at the Hardball Times, I like to think we were cutting edge with the data as it unfolded. These insights aren't as relevant today, but they helped lead us to the current day.
Win Shares
Inspired by Bill James' Win Shares, I developed an unhealthy obsession with win-based statistics. I took Bill's Win Shares and added my own take called Win Shares Above Bench (WSAB). This was an early precursor to Wins Above Replacement (WAR), which you might have heard of.
As part of my WSAB meanderings, I developed a unique approach to evaluating contracts that people still use today, substituting WAR for WSAB.
Win Probability Added
Yeah, I really got into Win Probability Added (WPA), which is a different kind of win-based statistic. First, I spilled some explanatory and analytic words about the development of WPA.
Then I spent some time using WPA as a basis for baseball commentary and analysis. This might be the work I'm proudest of. It includes multiple entries from the Hardball Times Annual and an article for which I won the first ever SABR Analytic Award for Historical Analysis/Commentary.
The 2009 Batted Ball Reports
In 2009, I decided to write a weekly column that used everything we had learned about batted ball data up to that point. It didn't really take, but I did develop a way of reporting the impact of batted balls that is useful. These are all the reports from that year, which is also a nice way of reading about how the season unfolded.
Baseball History
Every once in a while, I dove into some historical analysis. These included a ranking of ethical situations, an analysis of the luckiest players in baseball history, and why 1947 may have been the year the game changed the most.
