2003 Cincinnati Reds Baseball Graphs Review

Following are graphs and commentary regarding the 2003 season of the Cincinnati Reds. Questions or comments can be sent to me at dave@baseballgraphs.com.



NL Central Standings The National League Central Race

The Reds were pretenders to the Central Division throne until mid-June, when reality set in. Early in the year, they had some great slugging from their young hitters, and they outprojected their Run Differential Won/Loss record by over six wins as of July 1st. During that time, they were 18-9 in one-run games.

Things inevitably crashed for Cincinnati. They first began to play closer to their underlying run differential, then injuries took a huge toll, and finally management decided to trade away their best players. The Reds won only 30 games in the second half of the season, worst in the league and second-worst in the majors.





Comments How to Read this Graph

The Reds were the only National League team below the .400 isobar, another indication that they really were the worst team in the league. If you roll your mouse over the graph, you'll see that the Reds actually improved their runs allowed record, but the offense also went downhill, and they stayed in the same position relative to .400.

This graph indicates that they tied the Dodgers for worst offense, but I've updated the park factors for this graph on the National League page, where the Mets appear to be second-worst. Early in the year, the Reds had an outrageous slugging surge, primarily driven by Dunn, Kearns, Boone, Griffey and Guillen. All five were out (injured or traded) most of the second half.

Move your mouse over this graph to view the status of each team at the season's midpoint (July 1st).


Pitching and Fielding

Fielding Independent Pitching is based on the following formula: (13*HR+3*BB-2*K)/IP. Defense Efficiency Ratio is (Non-catcher putouts/Batted Balls in Play), adjusted for ballpark. Circle sizes in this graph are proportional to the percent of fieldable balls successfully converted into outs by the fielders.
The Reds' Pitching and Fielding

The Reds had the worst pitching in the league, as measured by FIP. Actually, the bullpen was pretty good; they were about league average in preventing runs. Their leader in pitching Win Shares was "closer" Chris Reitsma, followed by a couple of other (traded) relievers. And the best pitcher on the staff might be Ryan Wagner (who just graduated from college). But the starters truly left something to be desired.

On the field, the Reds were pretty decent fielders. Unfortunately, their team DER was very low, indicating that a lot of balls were hit where fielders couldn't reach them.

How to Read this Graph


Cincinnati Reds Ten Game Averages
April May June July Aug Sept
OBP .330 .322 .325 .339 .297 .294
SLG .428 .432 .401 .440 .327 .344
FIP 2.54 2.04 1.60 1.74 1.69 1.14
DER .708 .713 .710 .718 .734 .695
The DER stats in this table are based on limited data; the trend between months per team is more valid than the absolute number.
The Reds Day-by-Day

Contrast that slugging percentage over the first four months to the last two months. Injuries and trades. Also, check out that wild April offensive surge, when everybody thought GAB would be the next Coors. GAB actually appears to be a neutral park, based on one year (which is NOT enough data).

The Reds only had one streak (in August) in which their runs allowed trended significantly below league average. As the table indicates, this had less to do with pitching (FIP didn't improve significantly) and more to do with a good DER month. These things happen.



Cincinnati Reds' Win Shares

Player          Team    Pos     Hit     Field   Pitch   Sum     WS	
--------	----	----	-----	-----	-----	-----	---	
A Boone         CIN     3B      13.18   3.98    0.00    17.16   17	
S Casey         CIN     1B      15.19   1.43    0.00    16.62   17	
J Guillen       CIN     OF      15.43   1.09    0.00    16.52   17	
A Dunn          CIN     OF      11.74   1.22    0.00    12.96   13	
A Kearns        CIN     OF      10.93   1.55    0.00    12.48   12	
D Jimenez       CIN     2B      7.78    2.60    0.00    10.38   10	
J LaRue         CIN     C       7.13    3.07    0.00    10.19   10	
C Reitsma       CIN     P       0.13    0.00    8.06    8.18    8	
J Castro        CIN     2B      4.63    2.97    0.00    7.60    8	
S Williamson    CIN     P       0.00    0.00    7.41    7.41    7	
F Heredia       CIN     P       0.00    0.00    7.10    7.10    7	
B Larkin        CIN     SS      5.59    1.18    0.00    6.77    7	
K Griffey       CIN     OF      5.10    0.61    0.00    5.71    6	
R Branyan       CIN     3B      4.15    1.37    0.00    5.53    6	
P Wilson        CIN     P       0.00    0.00    5.40    5.40    5	
S Sullivan      CIN     P       0.00    0.00    4.90    4.90    5	
J Riedling      CIN     P       0.22    0.00    3.69    3.92    4	
K Mercker       CIN     P       0.00    0.00    3.68    3.68    4	
K Stinnett      CIN     C       2.06    1.30    0.00    3.36    3	
R Wagner        CIN     P       0.00    0.00    3.35    3.35    3	
R Freel         CIN     OF      2.48    0.76    0.00    3.24    3	
B Reith         CIN     P       0.00    0.00    3.10    3.10    3	
F Lopez         CIN     SS      2.10    0.94    0.00    3.04    3	
G White         CIN     P       0.00    0.00    2.94    2.94    3	
R Mateo         CIN     OF      2.16    0.66    0.00    2.82    3	
D Graves        CIN     P       0.00    0.00    2.60    2.60    3	
J Acevedo       CIN     P       0.00    0.00    2.40    2.40    2	
D Stenson       CIN     OF      1.82    0.30    0.00    2.11    2	
P Norton        CIN     P       0.00    0.00    1.93    1.93    2	
J Bale          CIN     P       0.00    0.00    1.87    1.87    2	
R Olmedo        CIN     SS      0.47    1.25    0.00    1.72    2	
T Van Poppel    CIN     P       0.00    0.00    1.66    1.66    2	
T Hummel        CIN     3B      0.98    0.51    0.00    1.49    2	
A Harang        CIN     P       0.00    0.00    1.31    1.31    1	
W Pena          CIN     OF      0.70    0.52    0.00    1.22    1	
B Larson        CIN     3B      0.00    1.02    0.00    1.02    1	
C Miller        CIN     C       0.62    0.31    0.00    0.93    1	
R Taylor        CIN     OF      0.00    0.76    0.00    0.76    1	
J Cerros        CIN     P       0.00    0.00    0.50    0.50    1	
M Belisle       CIN     P       0.00    0.00    0.38    0.38    0	
S Smitherman    CIN     OF      0.24    0.11    0.00    0.35    0	
E Valent        CIN     OF      0.00    0.18    0.00    0.18    0	
M Watson        CIN     P       0.00    0.00    0.09    0.09    0	
S Randall       CIN     P       0.00    0.00    0.05    0.05    0	
J Anderson      CIN     P       0.04    0.00    0.00    0.04    0	
M Budzinski     CIN     OF      0.00    0.03    0.00    0.03    0	
D Sardinha      CIN     C       0.00    0.00    0.00    0.00    0	
J Austin        CIN     P       0.00    0.00    0.00    0.00    0	
J Chamblee      CIN     3B      0.00    0.00    0.00    0.00    0	
R Dempster      CIN     P       0.00    0.00    0.00    0.00    0	
S Etherton      CIN     P       0.00    0.00    0.00    0.00    0	
J Hall          CIN     P       0.00    0.00    0.00    0.00    0	
J Hamilton      CIN     P       0.00    0.00    0.00    0.00    0	
J Haynes        CIN     P       0.00    0.00    0.00    0.00    0	
J Manzanillo    CIN     P       0.00    0.00    0.00    0.00    0	
D Serafini      CIN     P       0.00    0.00    0.00    0.00    0	
J Valentine     CIN     P       0.00    0.00    0.00    0.00    0	

The Reds' Individual Players

Nothing new to say here.

You can view all National League Win Shares data via the following links:
All Players, Top to Bottom
Players Ranked by Position
Players Fielding WS by Position