2003 Toronto Blue Jays Baseball Graphs Review

Following are graphs and commentary regarding the 2003 season of the Toronto Blue Jays. Questions or comments can be sent to me at dave@baseballgraphs.com.

The American League East Race

Toronto had a great run at the beginning of the year. As of June 23rd, they were in second place, one game behind the Yankees. That was the high point of their season.

After the 23rd, the Jays went into a two-month slump that took them out of the race altogether. They did have a nice September to finish well. There were a lot fo things to like about the Blue Jays in 2003.

Comments

How to Read this Graph

The Blue Jays had the second or third best offense in the league (depending on which park factors you use). Roll your mouse over the graph to see the Jay at midyear, and you'll see they had a great offense over the first half of the year.

Although the offense "regressed to the mean" in the second half, their pitching and fielding improved (that's the leftward drift of the point) and their overall position between the two halves, relative to a .500 record, was about the same.

Delgado and Wells obviously had great years on offense. They were second to the Red Sox in total bases and, like the Red Sox, they had a staggering number of doubles. Interestingly, they were fifth in home runs. They were third in OBP, behind the Red Sox and Yankees.

Move your mouse over this graph to view the status of each team at the season's midpoint (July 1st).

Fielding Independent Pitching is based on the following formula: (13*HR+3*BB-2*K)/IP. Defense Efficiency Ratio is (Non-catcher putouts/Batted Balls in Play), adjusted for ballpark. Circle sizes in this graph are proportional to the percent of fieldable balls successfully converted into outs by the fielders.

The Blue Jays' Pitching and Fielding

Toronto did not have a good fielding team in 2003. They ranked pretty low in DER, and their fielding prowess (as indicated by the circle size) was below average. According to fielding Win Shares, Orlando Hudson was the best second baseman in the league, and Vernon Wells was sixth in the outfield. But that's about all the good news there.

Toronto's pitching, as measured by FIP, was about average with the league. Roy Halladay had a great year, of course (FIP of 0.10) and Kelvim Escobar's stats were hurt by a DER of .677.

How to Read this Graph

	April	May	June	July	Aug	Sept
OBP	.353	.358	.365	.323	.352	.339
SLG	.452	.500	.513	.421	.397	.446
FIP	1.89	1.33	0.97	1.40	1.38	0.75
DER	.666	.742	.687	.701	.699	.742
The DER stats in this table are based on limited data; the trend between months per team is more valid than the absolute number.

The Blue Jays Day-by-Day

I love this graph. Check out that runs scored line in May and June. No one could stop the Blue Jays during that time (a lot of the games came against the National League).

The May/June record stands out because of what came immediately before and after it. The Jays' pitching wasn't good in April, but the fielding/DER was awful. In July and August, the offense was a bit more pedestrian and the team's record suffered. That September run came about because of some fine pitching, good offense and, for one brief shining month, some good fielding/DER.

Toronto Blue Jays' Win Shares

Player          Team    Pos     Hit     Field   Pitch   Sum     WS 	
--------	-----	----	----	----	-----	-----	---	
C Delgado       TOR     1B      30.16   2.05    0.00    32.21   32	
V Wells         TOR     OF      21.72   4.52    0.00    26.24   26	
R Halladay      TOR     P       0.00    0.00    23.01   23.01   23	
O Hudson        TOR     2B      7.65    9.84    0.00    17.49   18	
F Catalanotto   TOR     OF      13.83   1.43    0.00    15.26   15	
K Escobar       TOR     P       0.14    0.00    11.96   12.10   12	
E Hinske        TOR     3B      9.60    2.07    0.00    11.68   12	
R Johnson       TOR     OF      9.27    1.49    0.00    10.76   11	
M Bordick       TOR     SS      6.12    4.58    0.00    10.70   11	
A Lopez         TOR     P       0.00    0.00    10.20   10.20   10	
J Phelps        TOR     DH      9.94    0.07    0.00    10.02   10	
S Stewart       TOR     OF      8.06    1.42    0.00    9.49    10	
C Woodward      TOR     SS      4.06    4.62    0.00    8.68    9	
G Myers         TOR     C       7.56    0.76    0.00    8.32    8	
C Lidle         TOR     P       0.17    0.00    5.16    5.33    5	
J Kershner      TOR     P       0.00    0.00    5.08    5.08    5	
J Towers        TOR     P       0.00    0.00    4.81    4.81    5	
M Hendrickson   TOR     P       0.00    0.00    4.44    4.44    4	
B Kielty        TOR     OF      3.34    0.84    0.00    4.18    4	
T Miller        TOR     P       0.00    0.00    3.98    3.98    4	
T Wilson        TOR     C       2.77    0.53    0.00    3.30    3	
C Politte       TOR     P       0.00    0.00    3.20    3.20    3	
P Walker        TOR     P       0.00    0.00    2.59    2.59    3	
H Clark         TOR     3B      1.98    0.46    0.00    2.44    3	
D Davis         TOR     P       0.00    0.00    2.28    2.28    2	
T Sturtze       TOR     P       0.00    0.00    2.03    2.03    2	
D Berg          TOR     2B      0.07    1.35    0.00    1.42    1	
J Tam           TOR     P       0.28    0.00    0.82    1.10    1	
J Werth         TOR     OF      0.64    0.34    0.00    0.98    1	
D Creek         TOR     P       0.00    0.00    0.95    0.95    1	
S Service       TOR     P       0.00    0.00    0.91    0.91    1	
D Linton        TOR     P       0.00    0.00    0.75    0.75    1	
J Acevedo       TOR     P       0.00    0.00    0.57    0.57    1	
B Bowles        TOR     P       0.00    0.00    0.46    0.46    1	
K Cash          TOR     C       0.00    0.41    0.00    0.41    0	
C Thurman       TOR     P       0.00    0.00    0.28    0.28    0	
V Chulk         TOR     P       0.00    0.00    0.21    0.21    0	
K Huckaby       TOR     C       0.03    0.05    0.00    0.08    0	
D Reichert      TOR     P       0.00    0.00    0.06    0.06    0

The Blue Jays' Individual Players

Carlos Delgado had an MVP-caliber year, and he tied with ARod for most Win Shares in the league. Vernon Wells also had a super year, and Roy Halladay should be in the running for a Cy Young award. Win Shares rates Orlando Hudson fifth among AL second baseman.

The big midseason trade of Stewart for Kielty certainly went Minnesota's way in 2003 (Nine Win Shares to four).

You can view all American League Win Shares data via the following links:
All Players, Top to Bottom
Players Ranked by Position
Players Fielding WS by Position